Tool guide
Earnings Flow
Pre-earnings institutional positioning and post-earnings follow-through, so you see how the smart money is playing the print.
Open the tool →What it is
Shows pre-earnings options positioning for upcoming reporting companies — so you can see whether institutional money is loading calls or puts before the report.
What shows up
Only tickers that have both recent unusual flow (last 30 days) and earnings in the next ~21 days. It is the intersection of "smart money is active" and "a binary event is coming" — not every earnings report.
Expected move and last quarter
- Expected Move (±%) — the options-implied move, from the at-the-money straddle ÷ stock price. It is what the market has priced in, not a prediction.
- Last Q row — the prior quarter's predicted move vs. what actually happened (straddle "winner" vs "loser"). Tells you whether the current expected move tends to run too tight or too wide.
Consensus, conviction, and timing
- Consensus Sentiment — the aggregate bull/bear lean across all detected flows. Conviction % is premium-weighted; 75%+ flags a meaningful one-sided lean.
- Signal windows — each print is tagged by how early it landed: EARLY (14–21d) is the strongest tell, then THESIS (7–14d), LATE (3–7d), IMMINENT (0–3d).
- Caution — institutions buy calls as hedges too. High call premium is not automatically bullish; pair it with the flow detail before sizing a binary-event trade.
Watch it
Concepts used here
- Implied volatilityThe market's expectation of future movement, baked into the option's price.
- New moneyVolume far above open interest — fresh positioning, not closing an old trade.
- DTEDays to Expiration — low DTE signals urgency; high DTE signals a longer-horizon thesis.
- Premium sizeThe total dollars spent on a trade — the headline conviction number.